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Press release -

Lowest transaction volume in a decade, but better times ahead

After several strong years, transaction volumes in the Nordic property market fell sharply to just below EUR 20bn
in 2023. This is 60 percent lower than 2022 and 73 percent lower than the top-year 2021. Volumes are now back to the same level as 2013, but there are better times around the corner, according to Nordic property advisor Colliers.

“Most likely, 2023 will be the low point of this economic cycle. Drastically higher interest rates and an uncertain economic outlook have really cooled off the real estate market, but we have seen a changed momentum towards the end of the year. The interest rate peak is probably reached by now, and we expect
a stronger market in 2024,” says Bård Bjølgerud, CEO & Partner at Colliers Nordics.

Transaction volume 2023

Sweden

Norway

Finland

Denmark

Nordics

Transaction volume (EURbn)

7.8

3.9

2.5

5.4

19.7

- Change compared to 2022

-59%

-62%

-68%

-54%

-60%

Number of deals

230

150

135

160

675

- Change compared to 2022

-36%

-60%

-39%

-42%

-45%

Average deal size (EURm)

34

26

19

34

29

Foreign buyers

29%

15%

47%

30%

29%

Foreign sellers

15%

14%

17%

38%

21%

Based on property transactions above EUR 5 million.

Volumes down in all Nordic countries – just like the rest of Europe

Transaction volumes fell significantly in all Nordic countries in 2023. Finland dropped most with 68 percent, followed by Norway (-62 percent) and Sweden (-59 percent). The Danish market was most resilient with a
54 percent decline. The lower volumes were driven by fewer deals as well as reduced average deal size.

“We see a similar development across Europe with volumes down 50-70 percent in all major markets. However, we expect the Nordic countries to be among the first to recover, due to healthy underlying fundamentals and motivated investors, both on the buy-side and sell-side,” says Mikael Söderlundh,
Head of Research & Partner at Colliers Nordics.

Focus on logistics while public property losing ground

Sector-wise, logistics and residentials were the largest segments in 2023 accounting for 26 percent each of the Nordic transaction volume. Logistics accounted for only 19 percent in 2022 and is the largest segment for the first time. Contrary, the share of public property deals has decreased from 17 percent to nine percent of the volume.

Continued property sales from the listed sector

The listed property companies have continued to be large net sellers in the Nordic market and especially in Sweden. In 2023, the listed sector accounted for nine percent of all acquisitions and 33 percent of all sales in Sweden. The equivalent figures were 49 percent and 13 percent respectively back in 2021.


“The listed property companies have clearly shifted focus from buy to sell, driven by financing issues and valuations below NAV. We foresee the listed sector to have continued focus on debt restructuring and deleverage in 2024, but share prices have increased more than 40 percent over the last two months, and
there is suddenly light in the tunnel,” says Mikael Söderlundh.

Positive inflow of foreign capital eight years in a row

Foreign buyers accounted for 29 percent and foreign sellers accounted for 21 percent of the Nordic volume in 2023, meaning a positive capital inflow to the region for the eight consecutive year. In Finland, the share
of foreign buyers was as high as 47 percent in 2023.

The five largest property transactions in the Nordic region in 2023:

  1. NREP (Altura) acquiring a care home portfolio (22 assets) in Sweden from Vectura (SEK ~5bn)
  2. AP Ejendomme acquiring two office properties in Copenhagen from Corem (DKK ~2.5bn)
  3. NREP acquiring two office properties in Stockholm from Fabege (SEK ~3.4bn)
  4. Slättö acquiring a care home portfolio (47 assets) from Estea (SEK ~3bn)
  5. The tenant acquiring a hospital and development site in Norway from SBB (NOK ~2.8bn)

Attachments

• Chart: Nordic transaction volumes, 2008-2023

• Chart: Nordic transaction volume split by geography and sectors, 2023

• Chart: Share of foreign buyers in the Nordic countries, 2023

• Chart: Share of listed property companies on the buy-side and sell-side, 2021-2023

• Photos

Karoline Fagerheim, Marknadsförings- och kommunikationschef, Colliers Nordics

+47 92 84 05 54, karoline.fagerheim@colliers.com

Mikael Söderlundh, Analyschef och partner, Colliers Nordics

+46 73 770 77 90, mikael.soderlundh@colliers.com

Bård Bjølgerud, VD och partner, Colliers Nordics

+47 484 08 080, bard.bjolgerud@colliers.com


About Colliers Group
Colliers is a leading diversified professional services and investment management company. With operations in 65 countries, our 19,000 enterprising professionals work collaboratively to provide expert real estate and investment advice to clients. For more than 28 years, our experienced leadership with significant inside ownership has delivered compound annual investment returns of approximately 20% for shareholders. Colliers mission is to maximize the potential of property and real assets to accelerate the success of our clients, our investors and our people. Learn more at corporate.colliers.com, Twitter @Colliers or LinkedIn.

Contacts

Bård Bjølgerud

Bård Bjølgerud

CEO & Partner Nordics +47 484 080 80
Mikael Söderlundh

Mikael Söderlundh

Head of Research & Partner Nordics +46 73 770 77 90
Karoline Fagerheim

Karoline Fagerheim

Press contact Head of Marketing & Communications Nordics +47 928 405 54

Accelerating success.

Colliers Nordics
Our pan Nordic team consists of more than 250 professionals in Sweden, Norway, Denmark and Finland within the advisory business. Colliers is the market leader in the region, with over 16% of market activity based on 2018 - full year 2023. Colliers experts offer qualified knowledge within Capital Markets, Debt Advisory, Project Finance, Leasing, Valuations, Research and Occupier Services. With offices in all Nordic countries and a strong Nordic cooperation, we create effective solutions to create value for all our clients, both locally and cross borders.

About Colliers
Colliers is a leading diversified professional services and investment management company. With operations in 68 countries, our 19,000 enterprising professionals work collaboratively to provide expert real estate and investment advice to clients. For more than 29 years, our experienced leadership with significant inside ownership has delivered compound annual investment returns of approximately 20% for shareholders. With annual revenues of $4.3 billion and $96 billion of assets under management, Colliers maximizes the potential of property and real assets to accelerate the success of our clients, our investors and our people. Learn more at corporate.colliers.com, X @Colliers or LinkedIn.

Colliers
Norrlandsgatan 15
109 95 Stockholm
Sverige