Second strongest Nordic deal volume ever in 2022 despite 31% decline

After a groundbreaking record 2021 with a transaction volume of more than EUR 71 billion, we look behind at a far more modest 2022 and a decrease by 31 percent. However, despite the large decline in 2022, the volume stands at a strong EUR 49 billion which is the second best in history, according to Nordic property advisor Colliers.

Mikael Söderlundh, Head of Research Colliers Nordics & Partner: “Compared to the incredibly strong 2021, we’re now facing a more restrained market. While the number of deals has decreased by 13 percent to approximately 1250, the average deal size has reduced even more from EUR 53 million to EUR 39 million.”

Volume decreases in all Nordic countries except Finland
All Nordic countries, except Finland, are facing a downturn in transaction volume. Sweden, being the largest market in the region, is down 42 percent, Norway is down 35 percent and Denmark is down 18 percent. In Finland, being the only country not facing a negative development, the volume is up four percent compared to 2021.

Mikael Söderlundh: “2022 started strongly with a record volume of EUR 30 billion during the first half of the year, but then volumes declined 34 percent during the second half. The cooldown is partly fueled by higher interest rates and a gloomier overall economy. In total, the listed property sector is down 45 percent YTD 2022.”

From net buyers to net sellers
A big change from 2021 is that the listed property companies have gone from net buyers to net sellers. Last year the listed companies accounted for 49 percent of all acquisitions in Sweden and 27 percent in the Nordics. This year, the equivalent figures are 16 and 8 percent respectively.

Bård Bjølgerud, CEO Colliers Nordics & Partner: “The listed sector is currently valued at an almost 40 percent discount to book NAV, making it difficult for the companies to be active on the buy-side. Instead, we have seen property sales and equity issues to handle a tougher financing climate and credit rating requirements. “

Continued Nordic interest for foreign investors
Foreign investors continue to be net buyers, accounting for 39 percent of all acquisitions and 21 percent of all sales in the Nordics. This means net purchases of EUR 8.6 billion in 2022, which is the seventh consecutive year of positive capital inflow to the Nordics. In Denmark and Finland, the share of foreign buyers is 64 percent and 49 percent respectively.

Based on property transactions above EUR 5 million.

Residentials continues to be the largest segment
Despite a slowdown, residentials continues to be the largest segment, accounting for 28 percent of the total volume, followed by logistics accounting for 19 percent. Public properties and offices both accounts for 17 percent each of the volume. Retail has seen an upswing and increased from 9 to 13 percent, driven by some large sales of grocery store portfolios and well-known department stores in central Helsinki and Copenhagen.

The five largest property transactions in the Nordic region in 2022 are:

1. Brookfield acquiring 49% of an education portfolio in the Nordics from SBB (EUR ~2.1bn)¹
2. Allianz acquiring 56% of a residential portfolio in Sweden from Heimstaden Bostad (EUR ~1.6bn)
3. Kåpan acquiring the remaining 50% of Svenska Myndighetsbyggnader from SBB (EUR ~0.8bn)
4. Orange Capital Partners acquiring a residential portfolio in Denmark from NREP (EUR ~0.7bn)
5. Stenhus Fastigheter acquiring Swedish listed property company Randviken (EUR ~0.7bn)²

¹Based on SEK 44.9bn property value plus 50 percent earn-out
²Based on reported property value in Q1 2022

Bård Bjølgerud: “Looking ahead, we expect a challenging first half of 2023, but gradually improving and stabilizing property markets by end 2023. When entering a higher interest rate environment, the market will naturally transform and we expect to see new investors and interesting deal opportunities, including both asset and corporate transactions.”

Attachments
• Chart: Nordic transaction volumes, 2008-2022
• Chart: Nordic transaction volume split by geography and sectors, 2022
• Chart: Share of foreign buyers in the Nordic countries, 2022
• Chart: Share of listed property companies on the buy-side and sell-side, 2022
• Photos

Lovisa Edström, Head of Marketing & Communications
+46 323 27 96, lovisa.edstrom@colliers.com

Mikael Söderlundh, Head of Research Colliers Nordics & Partner
+46 73 770 77 90, mikael.soderlundh@colliers.com

Bård Bjølgerud, CEO Colliers Nordics & Partner
+47 484 08 080, bard.bjolgerud@colliers.com